CAN'T MISS IT 2011: OREGON vs LSU

Recent news of Coach Steve Kragthorpe being diagnosed with Parkinson's disease, has me writing this article with an air of sadness. Coach Kragthorpe (46) has been a stalwart of the college football community. Our thoughts and prayers go out to him and his family. He is going to stay involved in the day to day operations and guide the offense where he can, but Greg Studrawa, stepping up from his offensive line coaching duties, promises to lead a balanced attack.

News came out this week concerning the USA Today Coaches Poll. LSU is #4 and Oregon is #3, so you could not have asked for a better Saturday night match up in Arlington, Texas. In our second installment in the Can't Miss It 2011 Series, we cover the upcoming game between the Oregon Ducks and the LSU Tigers.

Oregon vs LSU
8:00 PM - September 3rd
ABC

Coach Les Miles is one of the best Coaches in the country. Often misunderstood and second guessed, he finds himself in the toughest division in the toughest conference in the country, The SEC West. Last year's squad went 11-2, and convincingly beat Texas A&M in The Cotton Bowl (41-24).  They return 8 offensive and 7 defensive starters.

LSU has been known over the years for a menacing disruptive defense, and this year looks to be more of the same. D Coordinator, John Chavis, who is an SEC veteran, knows what it takes to get the 3 and out. There were some key losses to the NFL draft this year, including 2 All-Americans in CB Patrick Peterson (Arizona Cardinals) and DT Drake Nevis (Indianapolis Colts). Losses on the defense include big time contibutors including Lazarius Levingston (DL) and All-SEC Kelvin Sheppard (LB), so some impact will be felt there. LSU is loaded with players, and they will step up.

On the Defensive short list of players to keep a close eye on this year and this game in particular include a pair of great cornerbacks in Morris Clairborne and Tyrann Mathieu. They lead a very talented LSU secondary. The defensive line is headed up by Sam Montgomery, and the line backing crew looks solid with Ryan Baker and Stefoin Francois. Last year's defense ranked second overall just behind Alabama, and this year should stay near the top of the pack again.

The Offense is a bit of a different story. Last year they were near the bottom of the SEC in almost every category, and a lot of attention has been paid by Coach Kragthorpe and company in tweaking for improved numbers. It all starts up front with the O Line, and LSU loses just one on the front lines in Joseph Barksdale (Oakland Raiders). Holding down the O Line will be P.J. Lonergan (Center), some combination of Will Blackwell, Josh Dworacyzk, and T-Bob Hebert at Guard, and Alex Hurst (Tackle), and Chris Faulk at Left Tackle. They should give Senior QB, Jordan Jefferson, some time to distribute the ball. His efficiency has to go up this year and his interceptions have to come down for LSU to navigate a very tough schedule.

A pair of solid receivers in Rueben Randle and Russell Shepard, and a very solid Tight End in Deangelo Peterson will be stretching the defense as LSU's downfield passing game looks to be improved. The ground game will be led by Spencer Ware, who has a shifty bruising style made for goal line and 3rd and short conversions. Ware was showcased in The Cotton Bowl as a sign of things to come were he produced 102 yards on 10 carries. Look for a team as good as last year's squad on both sides of the ball.

Oregon's Head Coach, Chip Kelly as well as Les Miles, have been dealing with Willie Lyles talk during this off season, and I'm sure they are both ready to get through camp and onto the season. Coach Kelly is entering his 3rd season at Oregon and he's lost just 4 games in the stretch. Oregon has secured 2 PAC-10 titles in his 2 years, and they now find themselves in the PAC-12 North (which also includes, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, and California). So aside from Stanford, the North is there for the taking.

The NFL draft did not pluck Oregon completely dry, but they will feel the loss of 1st Team PAC-10 Linebacker Casey Matthews (Philadelphia Eagles), and a pair from the D Line in Rowe and Bair. The Defense last year was at or near the top of every conference statistic, with D Coordinator, Nick Aliotti, at the helm. This year should be a bit different as Oregon returns only 5 on Defense. Stopping the run, which looks to be their weakness, will have to be a focus in this game against LSU.

The Linebackers will be a step down from last year's squad. Take note the team's returning tackle leader is Strong Safety, Boyett. Look for sack production to continue from one of Oregon's best threats, Senior, Josh Kadu (LB). Big things are also expected from Michael Clay (LB).

The secondary will be led by All-American, Cliff Harris, but not for this game. He was driving a University employee's car earlier this year at 100+ speeds, and he has been suspended from the team. He will miss the LSU game. Harris will be missed, he is a great defensive back and is also proficient at returning kicks. He is always a menacing threat. The rest of the Oregon Secondary is highlighted by John Boyett (SS) and Eddie Pleasant (FS).

Oregon has been known recently for their high powered offense, and with All-American, LaMichael James at RB, Darron Thomas at QB, and Kenjon Barner it is no wonder. These three combined for a formidable force racking up almost 3000 yards and 32 touchdowns. Look for another boost in the backfield as the very anticipated Lache Seastrunk (RB) gets on the scene. The receivers have benefited from opposing teams stacking the box, and look for Lavasier Tuinei (WR) and David Paulson (TE) to take the lead as the Ducks rebound from the loss of their top 2 receivers in Jeff Maehl and D.J. Davis, who combined for 119 receptions, 1546 yards, and 15 touchdowns last year. This could be another sore spot, especially on 3rd and long as Darron Thomas needs to finds a sure handed go to receiver to step up.


Bottom Line:
This looks to be every bit of a great one with a cranked up runing game threat from Oregon lining up against LSU's proven run stoppers. LSU is geared to stop the run, and don't think for a second that they have not watched the championship game over and over, training up on Oregon's tendencies. Look for Chip Kelly to throw in a couple new wrinkles to consistently get past LSU's defense. There are 2 key match ups in this one. (1) LSU's run D against Oregon's Ground Game that at times last year was unstoppable. The relentless and creative Oregon play calling, makes it extremely difficult for opposing defenses to hang in there for 4 solid quarters, but if anyone is up to the challenge, then look no further than John Chavis. (2) LSU's passing attack against Oregon's secondary, minus Cliff Harris. How will LSU's newly renovated downfield passing attack stack up? Will Jefferson come up and play an efficient game, or will he chuck up a couple picks, with one going all the way to the house? Look for the proximity of this one, being so close to Louisiana showcasing a revved up LSU squad.


Update August 22nd:
Oregon Running Back Lache Seastrunk has been unconditionally released from the team this past Sunday. He reportedly wants to be closer to his family back in Texas. Oregon's high powered running attack will be without its newest highly touted star who was working his way onto the depth chart. Nothing official yet. He will be transferring to Baylor.


Update August 27th:
In a recent flurry of unexpected and quite frankly out of left field events, LSU will be without 3 players for the season opener against Oregon: Jordan Jefferson (6-5, 224 lb, SR, starting QB), Russell Shepard (6-2, 118 lb, JR, starting WR), and linebacker Joshua Johns. Jefferson and Johns were involved in the now infamouse Tiger Beatdown, where the 2 have been recently charged with second degree battery (Bar Fight). Reportedly there were a number of LSU players involved. Russell Shepard on the other hand, will miss the opening game against Oregon for discussing an ongoing NCAA investigation with a teammate, before the teammate was scheduled to be interviewed on the matter by the NCAA. The line opened at 2, but has recently moved to 1. If you have not read it, I highly encourage you read the Police Report involving Jefferson and Johns.You really have to woner what was going on in Jordan Jefferson's head.


Update August 31st:
LSU will have to go against Oregon without their most experienced offensive lineman, Josh Dworaczyk. Josh is a 6-6, 300 lb. Senior. He is an anchor at left guard. With him out the offensive line looks to get shuffled around. Look for T-Bob Hebert to jump in. Hebert is one of the best reserves on the O Line.

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OREGON VS AUBURN: NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW

If you remember before the season got started, it was late July and early August, then you'll probably recall all the mayhem that was stirring across the country. As parties pushed and pulled at the College Football landscape and conference alignments within, two teams were flying under the proverbial radar.

Sure a couple analysts had one of the two squaring off, but no one had them both in it.

To his credit, Kirk Herbstreit was the only one talking about Auburn, and outside of some west coast beat writers, Oregon, in terms on the national stage, was not really being discussed either. Oregon finished up PAC-10 Champs, and Auburn came very close to beating the soon to be the National Champion Crimson Tide. It was a close game where BAMA came from behind on a late game winning drive to seal the victory, but honestly that game could have gone either way.

Cam Newton was on the radar, but not in the same breath as last year's heavyweights. Coach Saban, Greg McElroy, and Alabama's rushing attack were still high on the list - Not Auburn. And anyone that recalls Oregon from this past summer, will remember Jeremiah Massoli and his transition to Ole Miss. After things did not work out in Eugene, Massoli found himself working on getting cleared to play with the Rebels down in Oxford.

Last year's Rose Bowl is a game that no one should forget. Ohio State completely worked Oregon right back on the bus for the trip home. Buckeyes 26 - Oregon 17. Pryor, a tall calm and collected, physically dominating QB had his way with  the Oregon defense that day.

Last year for the Tigers ended with a close loss to Alabama and one of the most exciting bowls of the season. In the Outback Bowl, Auburn took down Northwestern in a 38-35 Overtime thriller. So the pieces were there, and adding in one key component like Cam Netwon made all the difference in the world. And to think people really, really did not like the Gene Chizik hire.

In his first year Chizik took over the reigns for Tuberville and guided Auburn to New Year's Day bowl victory, and this year his team travels to Arizona. This is just is 2nd Year on The Plains.

The same can be said for Coach Chip Kelly. In his two years in Eugene he has been nothing short of marvelous.

The modern era coaches have shown the capacity to move in quick and strike. Meyer, Saban, and now Chizik and Kelly are all in special company.

In order to understand this year's Oregon team, we have to look back at last year's squad. The 2009  season started off with a crazy loss on the wacky blue turf, and a scene reminiscent from the Rolling Stones at Altamont Speedway. LaGarrette Blount had enough of the lip (apparently he could not handle what he'd dished up) coming from the Boise State players.

And then there was the Stanford loss 51-42, where Oregon just could not get it done. Last year they were close. The majority of the pieces were there, just a couple refinements to the roster and boom, Arizona bound.

But this year's squads have overcome last year's hurdles. They have come back stronger, more resilient, and have dug deep when it has mattered most.

 This match up boils down to a couple key areas for me:

Keys to the Championship:

1. How well does Oregen handle Auburn's front Seven and hit the Edge - Considering what Nick Fairley has done this year in big moments, it's going to be one of THE match ups of the evening. Nick is bringing 298 lbs to the table, 83 tackles and a pick. The thing to remember here is - dude is a beast and when he turns it on, watch out. Just ask Greg McElroy as he got body slammed by Fairley during the Iron Bowl this year. It's hard to run a play when it gets blown up before it has a chance to start. Let's not forget the Nick Fairley is the Lombardi Award Winner (Nation's Best Lineman).

2. Can Oregon Stop Cam Newton - Cam has been on fire all year. He came into this season with very little fan fare, but he is looking to leave the year in a ticker tape parade and Toomer's Corner heavily rolled. He's been running free this entire season. I see Cam finishing this one out strong. Love him or hate him, he finds a way to move the sticks on 3rd Down and he's no stranger to the end zone. Let's not forget Cam is the Heisman Trophy Winner.

3. Will Oregon's Fast Break Offense Wear Down Auburn - Coach Chip Kelly is a smart man. He knows that if his team gets rolling, they are hard to stop. Catching teams in mismatches, then exploiting via the hurry up offense has become Oregon's trademark this year. Both teams have had plenty of time to get healthy from the end of the regular season. Now let's find out who stayed in shape because this is going to be a track meet. LaMichael James and Darron Thomas have the upbeat tempo offense down to a T.

4. Who Wins the Special Teams Battle Between Washington and Harris - Both are stunning and can pop it loose. It really depends on who shows up and wants it more when the lights are the brightest.


Team Breakdowns:

Offense - Tie (Oregon leads the Tigers in almost every Offensive Stat, but let's face it the SEC defenses are not really in comparison to the Pac-10 this year. Plus Auburn has Cam Netwon & The Heisman in tow, so its a wash.)

Defense - Auburn (Very debatable, stats point to Oregon, but logic tells me Auburn. They navigated the SEC this year and took down more highly ranked teams in the process. They knocked out Ryan Mallett. They knocked out Greg McElroy, and they came really close to knocking out Aaron Murray.

Special Teams - Auburn (The return battle between Cliff Harris versus Demond Washington is going to be special. Auburn's kicker, Wes Byrum, is solid and I like him down the stretch.)

Coaching - Tie (Both head coaches are in their 2nd Year. The Kelly & Aliotti vs. Chizik & Malzahn battle could not be any better as both staffs are on fire right now.)


Bottom Line:
The boys out west have this one Auburn -2 and others have it at -3. Oregon beats Auburn in almost every major category, but there are only a couple times in your life when you get to see a player like a Cam Netwon, who looks and plays like the next level. He'll run the show on Monday night. I like Auburn by a field goal. Cam and Nick have a field day.

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