Sunday, January 9, 2011

OREGON VS AUBURN: NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW

If you remember before the season got started, it was late July and early August, then you'll probably recall all the mayhem that was stirring across the country. As parties pushed and pulled at the College Football landscape and conference alignments within, two teams were flying under the proverbial radar.

Sure a couple analysts had one of the two squaring off, but no one had them both in it.

To his credit, Kirk Herbstreit was the only one talking about Auburn, and outside of some west coast beat writers, Oregon, in terms on the national stage, was not really being discussed either. Oregon finished up PAC-10 Champs, and Auburn came very close to beating the soon to be the National Champion Crimson Tide. It was a close game where BAMA came from behind on a late game winning drive to seal the victory, but honestly that game could have gone either way.

Cam Newton was on the radar, but not in the same breath as last year's heavyweights. Coach Saban, Greg McElroy, and Alabama's rushing attack were still high on the list - Not Auburn. And anyone that recalls Oregon from this past summer, will remember Jeremiah Massoli and his transition to Ole Miss. After things did not work out in Eugene, Massoli found himself working on getting cleared to play with the Rebels down in Oxford.

Last year's Rose Bowl is a game that no one should forget. Ohio State completely worked Oregon right back on the bus for the trip home. Buckeyes 26 - Oregon 17. Pryor, a tall calm and collected, physically dominating QB had his way with  the Oregon defense that day.

Last year for the Tigers ended with a close loss to Alabama and one of the most exciting bowls of the season. In the Outback Bowl, Auburn took down Northwestern in a 38-35 Overtime thriller. So the pieces were there, and adding in one key component like Cam Netwon made all the difference in the world. And to think people really, really did not like the Gene Chizik hire.


In his first year Chizik took over the reigns for Tuberville and guided Auburn to New Year's Day bowl victory, and this year his team travels to Arizona. This is just is 2nd Year on The Plains.

The same can be said for Coach Chip Kelly. In his two years in Eugene he has been nothing short of marvelous.

The modern era coaches have shown the capacity to move in quick and strike. Meyer, Saban, and now Chizik and Kelly are all in special company.

In order to understand this year's Oregon team, we have to look back at last year's squad. The 2009  season started off with a crazy loss on the wacky blue turf, and a scene reminiscent from the Rolling Stones at Altamont Speedway. LaGarrette Blount had enough of the lip (apparently he could not handle what he'd dished up) coming from the Boise State players.

And then there was the Stanford loss 51-42, where Oregon just could not get it done. Last year they were close. The majority of the pieces were there, just a couple refinements to the roster and boom, Arizona bound.

But this year's squads have overcome last year's hurdles. They have come back stronger, more resilient, and have dug deep when it has mattered most.

 This match up boils down to a couple key areas for me:

Keys to the Championship:

1. How well does Oregen handle Auburn's front Seven and hit the Edge - Considering what Nick Fairley has done this year in big moments, it's going to be one of THE match ups of the evening. Nick is bringing 298 lbs to the table, 83 tackles and a pick. The thing to remember here is - dude is a beast and when he turns it on, watch out. Just ask Greg McElroy as he got body slammed by Fairley during the Iron Bowl this year. It's hard to run a play when it gets blown up before it has a chance to start. Let's not forget the Nick Fairley is the Lombardi Award Winner (Nation's Best Lineman).


2. Can Oregon Stop Cam Newton - Cam has been on fire all year. He came into this season with very little fan fare, but he is looking to leave the year in a ticker tape parade and Toomer's Corner heavily rolled. He's been running free this entire season. I see Cam finishing this one out strong. Love him or hate him, he finds a way to move the sticks on 3rd Down and he's no stranger to the end zone. Let's not forget Cam is the Heisman Trophy Winner.



3. Will Oregon's Fast Break Offense Wear Down Auburn - Coach Chip Kelly is a smart man. He knows that if his team gets rolling, they are hard to stop. Catching teams in mismatches, then exploiting via the hurry up offense has become Oregon's trademark this year. Both teams have had plenty of time to get healthy from the end of the regular season. Now let's find out who stayed in shape because this is going to be a track meet. LaMichael James and Darron Thomas have the upbeat tempo offense down to a T.


4. Who Wins the Special Teams Battle Between Washington and Harris - Both are stunning and can pop it loose. It really depends on who shows up and wants it more when the lights are the brightest.


Team Breakdowns:

Offense - Tie (Oregon leads the Tigers in almost every Offensive Stat, but let's face it the SEC defenses are not really in comparison to the Pac-10 this year. Plus Auburn has Cam Netwon & The Heisman in tow, so its a wash.)

Defense - Auburn (Very debatable, stats point to Oregon, but logic tells me Auburn. They navigated the SEC this year and took down more highly ranked teams in the process. They knocked out Ryan Mallett. They knocked out Greg McElroy, and they came really close to knocking out Aaron Murray.

Special Teams - Auburn (The return battle between Cliff Harris versus Demond Washington is going to be special. Auburn's kicker, Wes Byrum, is solid and I like him down the stretch.)

Coaching - Tie (Both head coaches are in their 2nd Year. The Kelly & Aliotti vs. Chizik & Malzahn battle could not be any better as both staffs are on fire right now.)


Bottom Line:
The boys out west have this one Auburn -2 and others have it at -3. Oregon beats Auburn in almost every major category, but there are only a couple times in your life when you get to see a player like a Cam Netwon, who looks and plays like the next level. He'll run the show on Monday night. I like Auburn by a field goal. Cam and Nick have a field day.



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